crashbandicootforswitch| Real estate is back to activity, Greenland Holdings has a daily limit, and real estate ETF (159707) volume closed up 0.76%! Is the sector currently a "policy bottom"?

The real estate sector is active again today.CrashbandicootforswitchMost leading properties closed higher, Greenland Holdings rose by the daily limit at one point, closed up more than 6%, Financial Street rose more than 3%, Vanke A rose 2% to reach the half-yearly line, and Dayue City and overseas Chinese Town A rose more than 1%. In terms of popular ETF, real estate ETF (159707), which represents the leading real estate market of A shares, rose 5% in early trading, then fell back in the afternoon and closed up 0%.Crashbandicootforswitch.76%, the daily line is Erlianyang, and the turnover reaches 1.Crashbandicootforswitch.26 billion yuan, trading remained active.

On the news side, on May 21, second-tier cities such as Wuhan, Changsha and Hefei quickly landed the "517" New deal, helping to stabilize and repair the property market. In terms of the down payment ratio, all the three cities reduced the down payment ratio of the first and second homes by 5% to 15% and 25%. In terms of interest rates, Wuhan lowered the first / second commercial loan interest rates to 3.25% and 3.35%; Changsha's first / second commercial loan interest rates fell by 10/20BP to 3.65% and 3.95% respectively; and Hefei's first / second commercial mortgage interest rates were both reduced by 30/70BP to 3.45%.

Huatai Securities said that the reduction in the down payment ratio will lower the threshold for home purchase, while the adjustment of mortgage interest rates will effectively reduce the pressure on residents to buy houses, and the rigid demand and improved demand for home purchases are expected to be further released, helping the market to stabilize. The interest rates of the two mortgages are closer to the first suite, which is good for rigid demand and better for improving demand release. The adjustment of mortgage interest rates has more extensive influence and demand sensitivity. As a guide to the bottoming of house prices, we are optimistic about the effectiveness of this policy in supporting the market.

In terms of policy, is the real estate sector the "bottom of the policy" at present?Crashbandicootforswitch? China Post Securities believes that the policy has a certain role in stimulating fundamentals in the short term, and in terms of the first two rounds of real estate market, the policy market is indeed ahead of the fundamental market. In addition, if the policy effect does not meet expectations, it has not yet reached the bottom of the policy. There will still be a policy expected market before the high-level meeting in July, and industry repair is also a high-probability event under the effect of policy stimulus.

In terms of fundamentals, the heat of the property market in many places increased after the "517" New deal. According to monitoring data released by Zhuge data Research Center on May 20, in the 20th week of 2024 (May 13-May 19), the turnover of new commercial housing in key 15 cities was 16786, up 14.31% from the previous month and down 29.3% from the same period last year. In the 20th week, the heat of new housing transactions continued to rise, and the transaction volume showed a "second consecutive rise" compared with the previous year, but it was still at the middle and low level since last year.

Market analysts believe that the current data can not reflect the effect of last week's new policy, the policy effect has not been transmitted to the trading side in a short period of time, under the "517" new policy measures, market confidence will accelerate recovery and boost market activity; it is expected that this new policy will have a significant effect, combined with the current new housing cumulative net visa data, the monthly turnover in May is expected to catch up with April.

Bank of China Securities said that the current policy has been significantly intensified, and the stimulus on the demand side and the risk resolution on the supply side will continue to ferment for some time to come. At present, the main logic of real estate investment is "fixed tone shift + loose supply and demand policy + foreign capital entry + expected reduction of cash flow pressure and inventory risk of real estate enterprises". It is expected that the market of the mainland property sector will continue in the short term, but whether there will be a more significant sustained market still depends on whether the national fundamentals can be realized in the end.

As far as the allocation of housing enterprises is concerned, BOC Securities recommends to focus on the local state-owned enterprises that benefit from the government's preferred purchase and storage under "destocking", and those that have no liquidity risk and still have good fundamentals of land sales.

The layout of central state-owned enterprises and high-quality housing enterprises, it is suggested to focus on real estate ETF (159707). The data show that the real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 real estate index and brings together 16 head high-quality real estate enterprises in the market, which has an obvious head concentration advantage in the investment direction. The equity weight of the top 10 components is more than 80%, and the central state-owned enterprise content is high! Real estate ETF (159707) is also the only industry ETF on the market that tracks the CSI 800 real estate index, with scarcity and identification.

Data sources: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, China Composite Index, Wind, etc.

Risk hint: real estate ETF passively tracks the CSI 800 real estate index, the base date of the index is 2004.12.31, and the release date is 2012.12.21, the composition of the index stocks is timely adjusted according to the rules of the index, and its historical performance does not predict the future performance of the index. In this paper, the index stocks are only displayed, and the individual stocks are not described as any form of investment advice, nor do they represent the position information and trading trends of any fund under the manager. The risk level of the fund assessed by the fund manager is R3-medium risk, which is suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only and the investor is responsible for any discretionary investment behavior. In addition, any point of view, analysis and forecast in this article does not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, nor is it liable for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the contents of this article. Fund investment is risky, the past performance of the fund does not represent its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by fund managers does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance, so fund investment should be cautious.